Oak Wilt Vectors Emergence Thermal Model


Thermal model:

Location: 43.0°N, -87.9°W (show on Google maps)
Date range: January 1, 2024 to November 22, 2024

Degree day model: Base 41°F
Total degree days: 5202.5 Fahrenheit degree days
Oak wilt high risk period: 231 - 2172 degree days and date prior to July 15

Predicted risk: Low - after July 15

Recommendation for Nov 22, 2024:

The risk of overland transmission of oak wilt is greatly reduced after July 15th.

Forest setting: Harvesting can be considered. Read Oak Harvesting Guidelines to Reduce the Risk of Introduction and Spread of Oak wilt for details.

Estimated vector emergence status: Although substantial numbers of beetles, especially Carpophillus sayi were trapped past July 15th, only low proportions of beetles carried viable oak wilt fungal spores after July 15th (Jagemann et al., 2018). The abundance of the two major vectors of oak wilt was investigated in Minnesota in 2002 and 2003 (Ambourn et al., 2005). Abundance and contamination rate of Colopterus truncatus with the oak wilt fungal spores peaked in April and May. Abundance of C. sayi peaked in October, but the pathogen was most commonly isolated from beetles collected during May and June.


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